Everyday Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average figure of daily murders per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government data. But, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers might not indicate better national stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.